Oil Boom to Budget Bust

December 4th, 2008 by Andrew

One interesting aspect of Canada’s economy compared to nearly all the other G8 members is that it remains myopically focussed on our extractive primary industries, without pushing that growth into education, research & development and the emerging industries and manufacturing that will help strengthen and broaden the base of our economy and international competitiveness. The US economy, though not based on natural resources to nearly such an extent, has also fallen victim to letting its manufacturing industry and technological dominance languish, ‘growing’ their economy almost solely on the premise of financial markets. While the EU’s sectoral growth in manufacturing has lagged behind those of emerging economies (unavoidably, given the latter’s momentum), growth in many EU countries at least remained positive - and in the case of Sweden, Germany, and Denmark, quite dramatic, based on the strength of wind manufacturing.

While the Canadian government’s emphasis on taking our natural resources for all they’re worth may lead to huge surpluses in boom times, that same emphasis has damaging repercussions in a recession. For instance, in an ironic twist, the $78/bbl of oil that Alberta built their 2008-2009 budget on was considered comically conservative (which led the opposition to question the transparency of a government that expected a ‘hidden’ surplus of $5B+), but with the price of oil now under $50 and still dropping, that same government faces a deficit. By failing to separate our economy from the vagaries of the market for natural resources (a folly we share with such shining examples of economic foresight as Nigeria), it reduces our ability to weather shifts in demand.

Of course, to sound like a broken record, I continue to believe that the strongest move to generate long-term economic growth is a re-emphasis on technology, innovation, and sustainable development and manufacturing that will reap dividends regardless of the economic climate. Of course, oil will rebound back up to $150 and beyond, no doubt, but it seems like it befits a healthy economy to view that as a windfall to be plumbed back into future growth, rather than the sole basis of our economic platform. This notion of “green-collar” manufacturing was one of the soundbites that led me to support Obama early in his campaign, and I can only hope that Canada has the presence of mind to adopt a similar policy.

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